Regional parties to do better in Tamil Nadu, Andhra: CNN-IBN opinion poll
Regional parties are expected to take the major share of seats in the two southern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh but the Congress could be rewarded by a grateful Telangana in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.In Kerala and Karnataka, the Congress is predicted to perform better than the BJP.The CNN-IBN/IBN7 opinion poll was conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi between March 18 and 25.In Tamil Nadu, which goes to the polls on April 24 to elect 39 representatives, the ruling AIADMK is predicted to get between 15 and 21 seats whereas the DMK alliance is projected to get between 10 and 16 seats.The poll projected the BJP alliance to get between 6 and 10 seats while the Congress may not get a single seat.The Congress is fighting the polls alone in Tamil Nadu after the DMK pulled out of the UPA alliance in March, 2013.The vote share of the AIADMK is expected to be between 32% with the DMK alliance is projected to get 23%. 37% of the respondents in Tamil Nadu also said chief minister Jayalalithaa would make a "good prime minister" while 50% supported her decision to release Rajiv Gandhi assassins.In Kerala, the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front alliance is predicted to hold sway with 45% vote share which could translate into 11 to 17 seats out of the 20.The poll gave the Left Democratic Front alliance 4 to 8 seats with a vote share of 36%.The opinion poll also predicted the BJP to win 11% vote share but no seats.Significantly, 45% of the respondents in the Congress-ruled state said that the UPA did not deserve another chance to govern though Rahul Gandhi led the race for preferred PM ahead of Narendra Modi.Elections in Kerala will be held on April 10.In Karnataka, the CNN IBN opinion poll predicted the Congress to win 12 to 18 seats while the BJP is expected to win between 7 to 13 seats.The pre-poll estimated vote share predicted both the Congress and BJP gaining at the expense of Janata Dal (Secular).Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats and elections will be held on April 17.The poll predicted the JDS and other parties to win only 1 to 4 seats.With 32% approval ratings, Modi led the race for preferred PM in Karnataka ahead of Rahul Gandhi with 27%.In the crucial state of Andhra Pradesh, which has 42 seats, the poll projected the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to get between 13 to 19 seats in the combined state whereas the YSR Congress is projected to get between 9 and 15 seats.The poll also said that the Congress may win between 4 to 8 seats while the TRS may get between 4 and 8 seats in combined Andhra Pradesh.In the Telangana region, however, the Congress is predicted to get 35% vote share compared to TDP 13%.The poll gave TRS 34% vote share in Telangana region and BJP 10% vote share.In contrast, the Seemandhra region is predicted to give the Congress just 7 % vote share while the TDP may get 39%. YSR Congress is likely to get 33% vote share in Seemandhra.Overall, the Congress is expected to get 18% vote share in combined Andhra Pradesh while TRS is likely to get 13% vote share.Dissatisfaction with the UPA government has also declined in Telangana post statehood but rose in Seemandhra.37% respondents in Telangana region gave credit for the new state to TRS while 21% respondents gave credit to the Congress' central leadership.
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